Much has been made of how this 2023 Final Four, featuring a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds and a No. 9 seed, does not quite have as much talent as many of the Final Fours we’ve seen in the past. That’s probably true to some extent.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth watching. Plenty of talent will still be on display. And as the person people come to for takes on players’ potential at the next level, I’ve got you covered if you’re tuning into these teams for the first time this year as an NBA fan.

Who do you need to watch in the two games this weekend? I wrote about 15 players below, all of whom I expect to play professional basketball in some capacity down the road. Although I only give two first-round grades — both to Connecticut players — I’ll break down how scouts and evaluators look at many of the other players. A number of fascinating prospects could pop in future years and just aren’t quite finished products yet.

Here are the 15 professional prospects worth at least keeping an eye on in this Final Four:


1. Jordan Hawkins | 6-5 wing | Connecticut

Stats: 16.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists; 40.5 FG percentage, 38.5 3P percentage, 88.6 FT percentage

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Jordan Hawkins was seen as a potential first-rounder coming into the season after an intriguing freshman campaign that saw him display NBA-level athletic tools mixed with real movement shooting ability off complex actions. Connecticut has weaponized him even more in that regard this season. Hawkins is averaging those 16.3 points per game while firing up nearly eight 3s per game at a 38.5 percent clip. That might not look overly impressive on the surface, but it’s more the way that he goes about creating those 3s with his off-ball movement. Hawkins is constantly running off actions, trying to separate from his man to find that little opening. Here’s an example from the team’s game against Gonzaga. Look at Hawkins constantly running and moving, looking for the smallest opening that allows him to set his feet, rise up and fire to drill a 3. Even the smallest communication slip-up, like the one between Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton, results in a 3.

This stuff is directly translatable to an NBA that is starved for floor-spacers around its stars. The most valuable thing a role player can do is create an efficient opportunity to score without needing the ball in his hands to do it. Hawkins is the epitome of that. I wouldn’t sleep on Hawkins potentially having some upside beyond that, though. He’s improved dramatically as a ballhandler this year, actually using the threat of his jumper to attack closeouts and find scoring chances. He’s made some solid, live-dribble passes on the move. And even defensively, Hawkins really battles and uses his quickness along with his 6-foot-5 frame to try to disrupt the opposition.

The main issue right now is that Hawkins’ frame doesn’t allow him to maintain the best advantages possible. He’s extremely skinny. As a driver, defenders can recover onto him. As soon as he gets bumped, his momentum gets stopped. He struggles to finish around the rim because of that lack of strength. On defense, it’s a little too easy to blow through his chest right now. But all of the tools are there for him to continue to improve with age as he grows more into his frame. If he gets stronger, I think you’re looking at a very high-level NBA starter. Even if he doesn’t ever quite grow into that frame, he’s still going to be a very useful rotation player as a floor-spacer around high-level players. That’s worth a top-20 pick, and it wouldn’t stun me if a team that feels it can really work on his body believes in him enough to take him in the lottery this summer.

2. Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | Connecticut

Stats: 7.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 blocks in 13.2 minutes; 65.5 FG percentage

Donovan Clingan has had a fascinating trajectory. He was identified early due to his immense size but ballooned up a bit in terms of weight during the pandemic and lost some of his athleticism. By the time he arrived on Connecticut’s campus in the summer, though, he was already back in shape and looked ready to make an impact early. And man, has he made an impact every single time he’s out there.

At 7-foot-2, Clingan is a mountain of a teenager out there. He physically towers over almost every opponent — something that will again be the case against Miami in the Final Four. Moreover, he’s strong and establishes his position at will. He has great hands, he catches and finishes with ease, and he even showcases some touch at times away from the rim. The production per minute is ridiculous for someone on a team with this many options. He’s averaging about 18 rebounds and six blocks per 40 minutes. But what makes him different from other super giants out there? Why is he a better prospect than, say, Zach Edey?

It’s the defense, coordination and mobility. Clingan can move out there at his size. He’s not moving like a wing or anything, but his short-area quickness is quite good, especially when mixed with his length. On top of it, his anticipation as a rim protector is excellent for a teenager. I don’t think he’s quite as good as Walker Kessler in terms of his positioning and coverage in the gaps in drop coverage, but he’s quite good at it for someone this big at his age. Clingan is someone you can buy anchoring an interior defense in drop coverage for teams that wish to run that scheme as he continues to age and mature into his frame. He swallows up everything around the basket by staying as big as possible and then contesting with his length. Here’s a great example of what a Clingan defensive possession looks like. He does a phenomenal job of managing two ball screens involving Drew Timme by playing in the gap but staying home on the ballhandler until his man recovers, then getting back to Timme on the block. After those two fail, Clingan has terrific recognition for the drive that’s coming. He takes two gigantic help-side steps across and swats Hunter Sallis all the way out of the paint.

At some point in the next couple of years, Clingan is going to be a first-round pick. It’s just a matter of when. Does he want to take over college basketball next year after only playing 13 minutes per game this season? Does he think there is more to gain from developing another year at Connecticut given how good of a thing the program has going? Or does he decide to capitalize on this run and go pro? There isn’t really a bad option here for Clingan.

3. Jordan Miller | 6-7 wing | Miami

Stats: 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists; 54.9 FG percentage, 35.6 3P percentage, 77.6 FT percentage

So far, Jordan Miller is the player who has helped his status with NBA personnel most in the NCAA Tournament. Teams were pretty interested in him as a potential two-way contract option heading into the tournament. But his play over the last two weeks has pushed him into being the kind of older player who might get a guaranteed contract and make a team’s 15-man roster. A transfer from Jim Larrañaga’s old stomping grounds at George Mason, Miller is something of a late bloomer who has turned into a really solid player on both ends.

It starts on defense with Miller. While the Hurricanes as a whole have struggled on that end, he’s been a shining light. He takes on tough assignments and generally does a good job. Using his 6-foot-7 frame, he stays in front of his man and cuts off angles well. He seems to play well in a team construct. Miller is the kind of solid, steady, reliable wing whom teams love to get into their developmental infrastructure. The real growth this season has come on offense. The Virginia native has gone from being an unreliable 3-point shooter who always made his free throws to now consistently knocking down the limited 3s he takes per game. Miller has made 35.6 percent from 3 this season. His lefty stroke isn’t the smoothest thing in the world, but it’s workable — especially when considering all of the other things he brings. Miller is a sharp slasher in straight lines and an extremely efficient finisher in the paint.

Part of why he’s great finisher is that he very rarely makes poor decisions. Miller is extremely unselfish in the way that NBA teams love from their potential role-player wings, and he also sees the floor very well on his drives. Miller is a smart passer, averaging nearly three assists per game with more than a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He reads where the help is coming from at a very high level and makes the right choice on where to place the ball.

Over the back half of Miami’s season, there’s a case to be made that Miller was better than ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong. So why is someone like this not seen as a likely first-round pick? First, Miller is 23 years old, and analytically inclined teams on draft night won’t necessarily be enthused about taking him there due to a perceived lack of upside. Some teams appreciate drafting older, more NBA-ready players. Others don’t. Second, the shooting spike this season on a relative lack of volume is concerning. For Miller, going into NBA workouts and proving to teams that he can make a high percentage of 3s from beyond the NBA 3-point line at volume is the most important part of his pre-draft process. If he doesn’t shoot it consistently enough, Miller is going to have a hard time making it. Right now, I have Miller right on the edge of being a priority two-way grade and a guaranteed, 15-man roster contract grade. The shooting is just concerning enough that I would like a bit more information from his pre-draft workouts.

4. Andre Jackson Jr. | 6-6 wing | Connecticut

Stats: 6.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.0 steals

I’ve been very clear throughout the season that Andre Jackson is basically my favorite player in college basketball. I love everything about what he brings to the table. As much as anything, he just seems like a leader out there on the court through his actions. But moreover, he’s a player who does everything well outside of one glaring flaw.

Jackson is one of the best athletes in college basketball, an explosive leaper who also is quick-twitch and almost never seems to run out of juice. His energy bar at the top of the screen is consistently at 100 percent, and it allows him to be more reactive than other players on the court. This is the exact kind of play I’m talking about. Against Gonzaga, Jackson is sitting in the corner trying to space the floor as Adama Sanogo goes up to set a ball screen. As Connecticut adjusted to in the first half, Sanogo short-rolls into the midrange area after Gonzaga blitzes the ball screen. Tristen Newton throws an errant pass to the short-roller that should result in a turnover. But not on Jackson’s watch. He reacts faster than everyone on the court and sprints to the ball out of nowhere. But he also immediately processes that Julian Strawther has gone for the steal, and that Alex Karaban is sitting wide open on the wing . He throws a pristine pass on the fly to hit him for the back-breaking 3 before the half.

This is typical stuff for Jackson. He’s one of the smartest players on every court he plays on. He’s the epitome of a guy who makes winning plays. He averages almost five rebounds and five assists per game by being faster to the ball and smarter with it than everyone else. He’s also terrific on defense. He’s aggressive and takes on tough assignments. He flies around and wreaks havoc because he never runs low on energy. And then once the ball comes off the glass, he’s ready to grab the rebound and push the pace. Jackson is the guy who does all of the little things.

But Jackson does not shoot it well. The jumper, mechanically, looks very messy as he kind of leans forward and has a two-motion mechanic to it. He’s made just 30 percent from 3 in his career at Connecticut, and there isn’t a ton of evidence that he will shoot it long term. If there was, Jackson would be a no-questions-asked first-rounder. Jackson also isn’t the best ballhandler. He can get just a bit loose with it at times when trying to cover the space that opposing teams give him by not guarding him.

The equation for Jackson is kind of simple. If he shoots the ball, he will be an extremely valuable NBA rotation player. His feel for the game is outstanding, he’s an elite athlete, he defends, he passes, and at that point, you would be saying he also shoots. But shooting is so important in the modern NBA that Jackson is somewhere between being a guy on whom teams take a chance with a guaranteed contract and a two-way project. It’s hard to know where this one is going to fall. Much like me, teams want to love him. But the shooting is enough of a worry to where teams want to get him into their facility and really see how big of a project the jumper will be to fix.

5. Wooga Poplar | 6-5 wing | Miami

Stats: 8.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 48.3 FG percentage, 38.9 3P percentage, 86.7 FT percentage

Wooga Poplar is maybe the hardest player to rank here. There’s no circumstance where he should enter his name into the 2023 NBA Draft process, in my opinion. It wouldn’t be the best choice for him long term. I think it’d be really beneficial for him next season to step into an increased offensive role at Miami and showcase his skills. On top of that, I don’t think his draft stock is quite at its ceiling. There is a real chance he could grow into being a first-rounder next year. Poplar is the Miami player about whom scouts get the most excited long term, but he’s much more raw than either Miller or Wong at this stage. He got to the game later and is still developing into his skills.

Having said that, the 3-and-D potential is incredibly obvious. Poplar is a ridiculous athlete at 6-foot-5 with great length. He finishes above the rim and has real speed and quickness. Defensively, he works hard and tracks back all over the court. As a shooter, Poplar gets a lot of open opportunities, but he converts. He made about 39 percent of his 3-point chances this season, with almost all of them being of the catch-and-shoot variety. That’s all a great starting point, but Poplar doesn’t have a ton of ball skills yet that he can use in game. He doesn’t make mistakes and doesn’t overextend himself, plus Miami has a ton of other guys to handle the ball instead. Poplar’s role is very limited with this Miami core. It would help his development to get more of these reps in-game.

I think you could have Poplar as high as No. 3 on this list if you buy into the tools. His ceiling is that of a potential first-round pick if his development goes right over the next 12 months. I don’t know that I’d predict it given how limited he remains off the bounce still. But you can see the outlines of an incredibly valuable player because it’s harder than people think to find NBA-caliber athletes with size who can shoot and defend.

6. Alex Karaban | 6-8 wing | Connecticut

Stats: 9.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 48.5 FG$ percentage, 40.5 3P percentage, 83.7 FT percentage

Alex Karaban is one of the sneaky prospects about whom I get asked regularly. He’s not a 2023 prospect, but scouts see him as a legitimate prospect in the future for a few simple reasons. He’s a relatively mobile 6-foot-8 wing who hit 40.6 percent from 3 this season as a redshirt freshman on a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities. He’s often the fifth option on court in this offense, leading to a lot of open chances. But the starting point here is almost exactly what NBA teams crave.

Positional size mixed with elite shooting is a combination of skills that leads to players being coveted. It also helps that Karaban is very responsible as a team defender. His communication is on point, and he can switch onto a variety of players without getting cooked unless he’s facing the fastest guards. He always rotates into the right spot and is available on the weak side as a rim protector occasionally, something that is sneaky valuable when he plays a lot of minutes with Sanogo. Over the next couple of years, he needs to improve his game off the bounce and become more confident as a passer and driver. He has a ways to go, but the upside certainly exists.

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7. Isaiah Wong | 6-4 guard | Miami

Stats: 16.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 44.7 FG percentage, 38.1 3P percentage, 84.1 FT percentage

The ACC Player of the Year, Wong is a scoring guard through and through. He’s added a lot to his game over the years, but at the end of the day, it all comes back to his ability to get buckets. Wong has always had a terrific bag of tricks to separate from his man, but up until this season, he could be on the wrong edge of that efficiency line that you look for from a primary scorer. The key for him this season is two-fold. First, Wong is shooting better from 3. He looks much more comfortable pulling up from distance, and I think I would bet on him being a solid shooter long term. Second, he’s making better passing and playmaking decisions. Instead of trying to do it all himself, he’s seeing the court and finding his teammates at a solid level. Getting to share the on-ball load with Nijel Pack has certainly helped in this regard.

Wong projects as a potential two-way player this year who will be on the borderline of getting a G League Elite Camp and NBA Draft Combine invite. His confidence and ability to score from all three levels out of a variety of situations certainly appeals to teams, and I think he’ll get games in the NBA next season.

8. Adama Sanogo | 6-9 big | Connecticut

Stats: 17.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists; 60.3 FG percentage, 34.7 3P percentage, 77.6 FT percentage

One of the most productive players in college basketball this past season, Sanogo has helped his potential NBA outlook but hasn’t quite emerged into a top prospect. He’s physical and tough on the interior, bullying weaker bigs around and using his length and strength to crush the offensive glass in addition to score on the block. Beyond that, he’s also added the occasional 3-point jumper, having made 35 percent of 50 attempts this year. Having said that, he’s a 6-foot-9 center who is a bruiser in an era where this player type is a bit of a anachronistic style.

Sanogo is tough, but he’s not really a rim protector and doesn’t project as a high-level 3-point shooter in an era where those are the key things teams look for from centers who aren’t giants. He would best set himself up for success in the NBA by improving his mobility in space, showcasing more of the short-roll passing ability we saw in the Elite Eight against Gonzaga and continue to develop that jumper. Sanogo is probably a bit more likely to end up overseas than in the NBA, but he’s improved enough in important areas that he shouldn’t be ruled out and is a candidate for a two-way contract as an undersized center.

9. Lamont Butler | 6-2 guard | San Diego State

Stats: 8.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.5 steals; 41.8 FG percentage, 33.0 3P percentage, 72.3 FT percentage

How does Lamont Butler feature so highly here? It’s all about defense. He is one of the most dogged, tough, on-ball defenders in college basketball. A two-time All-Defense selection in the Mountain West, Butler is incredibly aggressive in the way he attacks opposing players on the ball. He clearly does a ton of film work and seems to always know exactly what opposing players’ tendencies are, then he preys on them. He’s ready to pounce if you even put a step out of line. Then off the ball, he shoots passing lanes and uses his length to attack. There are very few more disruptive perimeter defenders in all of college basketball.

Offensively, Butler shows flashes but is definitely a work in progress. He hits 35 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers. He needs to improve that a bit. Moreover, he needs to be better creating off the bounce. He needs to play with a little more shake out of ball screens and in isolation. It’s possible that getting into an NBA situation might help him a bit, as the San Diego State court is often cramped. But it does feel like for Butler to succeed at the next level, even with his elite-level defense, he needs a bit more juice off the bounce so that he can play some point guard. The goal for Butler should be new-era Patrick Beverley.

10. Norchad Omier | 6-7 big | Miami

Stats: 13.3 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.3 blocks, 57.9 FG percentage

Norchad Omier is your big, physical, Chuck Hayes-style undersized center. More than anything, he’s one of those guys who always seems to be around the action and the ball. He’s a killer rebounder. He’s versatile in defensive coverages with solid footwork and fundamentals, capable of using his lateral agility to hard-hedge or using his long arms and strength to sit in drop coverage. Offensively, he finishes well around the rim and passes well.

The issue for Omier is that it’s exceptionally hard to be a 6-foot-7 center. He doesn’t really have the ball skills to play the four in the modern NBA, where those players are more likely to be true wings. He doesn’t really shoot well enough at this stage to be a floor-spacing five. On defense, his rim protection at the highest levels this season has been a part of why Miami’s defense has struggled. He’s there and he’s very active, but he’s just not quite big enough to make a true impact against many of the biggest players. My guess is Omier gets a real crack at the NBA, and I think he’s worthy of that because the dude just knows how to play. But I’d assume he’ll be at Miami again next season before taking that shot.

Miami’s Nijel Pack can fill it up from outside, but does he have the size to play at the next level? (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

11. Nijel Pack | 6-0 guard | Miami

Stats: 13.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 44.5 FG percentage, 40.2 3P percentage, 88.2 FT percentage

A former first-team All-Big 12 player, Nijel Pack transferred to Miami amid enormous amounts of publicity. He has been a critical get for the Hurricanes, and nobody would bat an eye at the price tag the Hurricanes’ NIL initiatives spent on him now. The key skill with Pack is shooting. There are few better shooters in the country, both off the catch and off the dribble. He’s had three straight years over 40 percent from 3, and he’s been a high-usage player in all three of those seasons. He can also initiate the offense as a point guard.

It’s just exceptionally hard to make the NBA at this size. Shooting gets you in the door, but it’s so hard to stick when you’re a 6-foot scoring guard. And many of Miami’s problems this season, in my opinion, stem from issues at the point of attack on defense, where Wong and Pack tend to struggle to contain dribble penetration. I see Pack as a terrific player overseas who will make a ton of money playing pro hoops. But he’d probably need to develop into the best shooter on Earth to stick in the NBA.

12. Johnell Davis | 6-4 guard | Florida Atlantic

Stats: 13.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 49.3 FG percentage, 36.6 3P percentage, 85.0 FT percentage

Johnell Davis has burst onto the scouting scene recently, posting the first NCAA Tournament game ever with at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and five steals. But he’s been terrific throughout the season. Davis was first-team All-Conference USA. The numbers might look a bit pedestrian at 14 points per game, but Florida Atlantic really shares the wealth in its offense. Davis is an aggressive downhill slasher who can also pull up from all around the court. He made 37 percent of his 3s this season but still isn’t taking a ton of them after shooting pretty poorly last season. There are also just some real, inherent limitations regarding a combo guard with this kind of profile who rarely sets up his teammates for open shots. Davis should probably head back to school for another year to keep rounding out his game.

13. Nathan Mensah | 6-10 big | San Diego State

Stats: 6.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 53.5 FG percentage

Some quick love here for Nathan Mensah, who has been one of the best defensive players in college basketball for two years. He’s won back-to-back Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year awards and is the anchor inside who takes San Diego State’s defense from good to great. He’s one of the 10 best defenders in the country. His sense of anticipation rotationally around the rim is terrific, using his elite length to contest and block shots at at will. His sense of positioning in drop coverage is terrific in ball-screen settings. Offensively, he’s not quite skilled enough right now to play in the NBA. Mensah is just very limited on that end. Even someone like Christian Koloko at Arizona last year had a bit more reliability, and he’s really struggled to adjust to the speed of the NBA on offense. But if some team wanted to try to develop that side of the court for Mensah in its G League program, I’d completely understand it.

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14. Tristen Newton | 6-5 guard | Connecticut

Stats: 9.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists; 37.5 FG percentage, 36.8 3P percentage, 80.4 FT percentage

The jewel of Connecticut’s transfer class this past offseason, Tristen Newton has had an up-and-down campaign as a 6-foot-5 lead guard. At East Carolina, Newton did everything. He was the No. 1 option, driving transition play and trying to aggressively collapse defenses. At Connecticut, there has been a bit of an adjustment. It took about half of the season, but he’s gotten to the point where he’s pretty reliable. He has become a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio guard who generally makes solid decisions in the flow of the offense. Connecticut similarly wants to push tempo, and he allows the Huskies to do that. The main issue is his overall scoring ability. Newton shot just 38 percent from inside the 3-point line this season, which is a catastrophic number. He should go back to Connecticut and keep developing that part of his game. Still, he’s 6-foot-5 with real ball skills and shooting ability, which will always get NBA looks.

15. Matt Bradley | 6-4 guard | San Diego State

Stats: 12.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 40.2 FG percentage, 35.8 3P percentage, 80.2 FT percentage

Above all, Matt Bradley is a professional scorer. A 6-foot-4 bowling ball, Bradley is a four-time all-conference performer, split twice each between Cal and San Diego State. This is actually Bradley’s lowest scoring output since his freshman year, but it’s coincided with wins. He’s not quite explosive enough athletically to play in NBA due to his lack of ability to separate, but he’ll make a killer living overseas as a bucket getter due to his terrific footwork, his well-displayed touch having hit 39 percent from 3 over his career and his aggressive driving game. There’s a good chance he makes more money than many of the guys above him on this list.


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(Top photo of Jordan Hawkins: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

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