Top Landing Spot for Lamar Jackson: Updated Odds, Predictions, and Dynasty Impact
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have been in contract negotiations since last season. The rival Cleveland Browns threw a wrench into things when they gave Deshaun Watson his contract. This set the bar for both Baltimore and Cincinnati with their looming contracts. Watson received a 5-year $230 Million deal that was fully guaranteed, which set the table for some tough negotiations. What does the market look like for Lamar Jackson’s new landing spot?
Lamar Jackson received the non-exclusive franchise tag. Let’s talk about what that means and the differences between the other tags. Per Overthecap.com, The Exclusive Franchise tag would have come at a higher cost, but Lamar could not have negotiated with other teams. The non-exclusive tag is $13 million cheaper. Thinking about 2024, the tag will go up 20%, and the Ravens again set themselves up to save some coin. The downside, Lamar Jackson is free to negotiate with other teams.
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Top Landing Spots for Lamar Jackson: Updated Odds, Predictions, and Dynasty Impact
The Ravens and Lamar can still work on a long-term deal, and the Ravens can also retain him by matching an offer. This could get slippery if a team were to front-load an offer that the Ravens couldn’t physically match. They are already up against the cap, according to overthecap. Teams that could do something like this would be (HOU, ATL, IND, CHI, and LVR) according to overthecap.
The Ravens would receive two first-round picks if Lamar were to sign with one of those teams and the Ravens did not or could not match. Reminder, Miami Dolphins do not have a first-round pick.
The Ravens’ Options for Lamar
Why trade Lamar Jackson? Lamar Jackson has missed 11 games combined in the last three seasons and has seen his production go down steadily as well. In Jackson’s last three seasons, he has had 26, 16, and 17 passing touchdowns. During this time, he has had 29 interceptions. Over the previous two seasons, his completion percentage numbers were 50.7% and 59.0%. We can point to the coaching or the lack of weapons, but these are not good numbers.
You can imagine if a team is looking to spend this much money, they would like to see the numbers improve. The Ravens could move to a rookie quarterback with a cheaper salary to build around. The team acquiring him will pay him around $45 Mill per year guaranteed, and two 1st round draft picks. Are you willing to do that?
Many people want to see Lamar moved, just for the excitement of the offseason. Even if he stays in Baltimore, there will be a lot of changes in the offense. The team was without several key starters for most of the season, and they have also changed offensive coordinators. Even if Lamar stays, the offense will be different under Todd Monken. Let’s look at the odds and talk about the dynasty stock impact. I will rank my top 5 landing spots at the end.
Detroit Lions
Updated Odds: +300
February Rate: N/A
The Detroit Lions have emerged as the front-runner if Lamar Jackson is traded. This is an intriguing option as this team has multiple 1st round picks (6 + 18). The Ravens could really benefit from this situation. They could draft a QB at 1.06 or move up to get a QB that they love.
🏈 The Detroit #Lions offense is showing promise for the 2022 season #OnePride #NFL #GBvsDET
— Marissa Myers (@Marissa_M27) January 9, 2022
Jared Goff played well last year and would have a market if traded. His contract is fairly easy to trade with only $10 Million in dead cap this year and $5 Million in dead cap next year. March 18th, he has a roster bonus of $5 Million in 2023. Dynasty-wise, this would be an excellent move for Jackson. This team has weapons, a strong offense, and a good offensive line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Updated Odds: +450
February Rate: +450
The Buccaneers going from Tom Brady to Lamar Jackson would be interesting. This would be a great landing spot for fantasy purposes. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rachaad White would be great weapons for Lamar Jackson. This is a winnable division and far away from Baltimore. But, This team seems to be moving towards rebuilding, and I don’t see this being a realistic option.
Indianapolis Colts
Updated Odds: +500
February Rate +275
The Colts are an exciting option with new head coach Shane Steichen. We saw what he was able to do with Jalen Hurts. The Indianapolis Colts GM, Chris Ballard, has already spoken about doing whatever it takes to get a Quarterback in the draft. If they don’t think this is a real possibility, they could turn to Jackson. The Colts have been a mess since the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. But, they have been picking up in the 20s, and that caused them to have to go the veteran route.
The Colts have tried to band-aid things together with older veterans like Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. They also attempted to rehabilitate Carson Wentz, who was younger but had obviously regressed since his knee injury.
Recently, Indy announced the hiring of Shane Steichen from the Eagles. In my opinion, they are sitting at the 4th spot and are more likely to draft a Quarterback. If they did go with Lamar Jackson, though, I think this is a good landing spot for him. We saw Steichen’s success with Philip Rivers, and of course, Jalen Hurts. The cost of the 4th pick, plus another 1st and a massive contract, doesn’t make sense with where this team is at.
He gets to play in the AFC South, and the Colts have some solid offensive pieces. The offensive line is not as good as it once was, but they still have Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. This wouldn’t be an upgrade for dynasty purposes, but it is probably a downgrade.
Michael Pittman Jr. is an absolute BEAST 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Hc8N4nw5Mi
— Ʊ Bring The Juice Ʊ (@BTJPod) September 12, 2022
New York Jets
Updated Odds: +600
February Rate: +300
The New York Jets looked good this year with every Quarterback not named Zach Wilson. The Jets are all in on Aaron Rodgers right now, which looks to be close to happening. Derek Carr didn’t wait around, and if they don’t land Rodgers, they will be stuck. It would be likely they could turn to Lamar Jackson. The Jets have the cap space, and they have a later 1st.
This team feels like they are a quarterback away, and Lamar could be plan B. I like this spot for fantasy. The weapons are there, and Lamar would join a good roster. If the Jets can’t land Rodgers, this will likely be their plan B, or Jimmy G will be.
Tennesee Titans + 1200
Updated Odds: +700
February Rate: +1000
The Titans would be interesting with Derrick Henry. Imagine trying to stop Lamar and Derrick Henry. This would be a fun team, and we would hope they add another weapon in the draft. They would also have to move on from Ryan Tannehill. This is another option that I think is very unlikely with a team that appears to be in rebuild mode.
New England Patriots
Updated Odds: +800
February Rate: +700
The Patriots obviously have not been the same since losing Tom Brady. They could be in the rookie QB market if they find a way to move Mac Jones and get into the top 10. They could also be in the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes. We know Bill struggles against rushing QBs, and they just added Bill O’Brien, who had great success with Deshaun Watson. This team is missing weapons and might not be the best fantasy fit. I also think that trading these assets and paying that contract doesn’t seem to be the Patriots’ way.
Las Vegas Raiders
Updated Odds: +900
February Rate: +400
The Raiders are reportedly out, but things can definitely change. They were supposed to get Brady, and then we thought they were getting Rodgers. Now there are rumors they are trying to go after Mac Jones. All while they are highly favored to trade up for Anthony Richardson or Will Levis in this draft.
If Lamar went to the Raiders, it would be a good spot for him for a dynasty fantasy football league. He lands with Darren Waller and Davante Adams. He has Josh Jacobs and will be in a highly competitive division. I think this one has some potential, but they are likely to be in on a rookie more than anything. McDaniels gets to pick his guy, even if they have to trade up.
Miami Dolphins
Updated Odds: +900
February Rate: +1000
The Tua fans will hate this option as they dealt with the Deshaun Watson rumors last offseason. Tua’s health is a concern, and we saw reports that Miami could be looking to move off from Tua. Lamar is from South Florida, and the hometown connection and the weapons are intriguing. But, the Dolphins are missing a key piece to this equation. They do not have a 1st round pick. They essentially would have to trade Tua for a 1st to make this happen. Would Baltimore trade Lamar for Tua and a 1st?
If Lamar somehow made it to Miami, this would be the prime landing spot for fantasy purposes. Lamar, Waddle, and Lamar Jackson would be the faster offense we have ever seen.
Atlanta Falcons
Updated Odds: +1000
February Rate +275
The Atlanta Falcons are reportedly not going to pursue Lamar Jackson. We don’t know if this is true, but this is what was reported. Atlanta has been a favorite all along. They are in a weak division, they have a lot of cap space, and they tried to acquire Deshaun Watson last year. If they move up in the draft, they are already be giving up two 1sts. But do they prefer the rookie and the rookie salary? Does Lamar make this team competitive enough to give up those 1sts? They could. This could be a quick turnaround team with all of the picks and salary cap that they have.
Carolina Panthers Updated Odds: +1200
February Rate: +1200
The Carolina Panthers have been desperate for a quarterback. They have tried to piece it together by trading different assets. Carolina traded multiple picks for Sam Darnold and to move up for Matt Corral. They also traded a 5th for Baker Mayfield. They pick at nine and are poised to trade more picks.
The difference is they have some firepower and might be big game hunting. They were able to gain assets mid-season by trading Christian McCaffrey and Chosen Anderson. The Panthers could make a move for a top 3 pick in this year’s class. They currently have picks (9-39-61-93-114-132-157), according to the Drafttek.com trade value chart. For the Panthers to move to the #3 spot, it would cost them approximately pick #9 and a 2024 1st-round pick. A trade for the #1 overall pick would cost another 1st or two 2nds plus more.
Back to Lamar, if the team is already willing to give up the 1sts, they might be able to go after Lamar. The rookie salary is a massive part of the equation as to how Lamar is valued vs. the rookies. At $45 Million per year vs. a top rookie, $15 Million is a big gap. Personally, I think Carolina has been killed for not taking a rookie. This year they should finally do it. Frank Reich joined the team, and they hope he can get the most out of a rookie QB. They very well could bring in a veteran like Sam Darnold to be a short bridge.
Washington Commanders
Updated Odds: +1200
February Rate: +900
The Washington Commanders will reportedly not pursue Lamar Jackson. This could be very true, but this also could be smoke, just like their confidence in Sam Howell. Washington is really far off of the rookie QB market, and they just made a splash with Eric Bienemy. We know that Rivera had success with a rushing QB in Carolina, and this could be a very likely fit here.
The Commanders don’t have to give up a high first like the other teams, and Lamar joins the NFC. This would honestly be a great fit. We don’t know what exactly Bienemy’s offense will look like. But we know that he comes from a great pedigree and has had great success in Kansas City. The Commanders also have some serious weaponry. This would be the best set of WRs Lamar has ever had, and after cutting Wentz, Washington could afford it.
San Francisco 49ers
Updated Odds: +1600
February Rate: N/A
The San Francisco 49ers are in a vicarious position. They already have a quarterback controversy. This situation would have them going with plan C. They could try to trade Trey Lance and/or Brock Purdy to recoup some picks. However, Lamar Jackson would be more interesting here. We were excited that Trey Lance would be unlocked here, and we should be even more excited if Lamar signs with the 49ers. This would be an ideal situation as far as fantasy. This would have some ripple effects as far as the other quarterbacks and the players on the 49ers.
My Prediction: Washington Commanders
We hope you enjoyed reading about these potential landing spots for Lamar Jackson. Be sure to check back with SGPN daily for more fantasy football content.
