If the 2023 Emmy Awards were handed out today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the big winners? Our predictions center officially opened on January 31 and already more than 1,500 people have made their nominations forecasts in 16 top races. Who’s out front to claim golden trophies in our early bird Emmy predictions 2023? As of this writing, things are looking strong for Apple TV Plus’ feel-good comedy “Ted Lasso,” HBO’s family drama “Succession” and Netflix’s serial killer limited series “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” — but it’s still anyone’s game at this initial stage.
Remember, the Television Academy is a big fan of repeats. When they love you, they really love you, and they’ll shower you with trophies year after year. Perhaps that’s why our early odds favor TV shows that have prevailed before. Indeed, “Ted Lasso” is the reigning Best Comedy Series champ from 2021 and 2022, while “Succession” claimed victory for Best Drama Series the last two times it was eligible in 2020 and 2022. Can both series claim trophy #3 in September?
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Below, see a snapshot in time of our racetrack odds for Emmy predictions 2023, nominees and winners, updated February 15. Note that several contenders may be added, removed or shifted to other categories at a later date, depending on network decisions. Our odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
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BEST COMEDY SERIES
Predicted Nominees
“Ted Lasso” — 9/2
“Abbott Elementary” — 5/1
“Only Murders in the Building” — 7/1
“The Bear” — 15/2
“Barry” — 17/2
“Wednesday” — 14/1
“What We Do in the Shadows” — 18/1
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” — 20/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Great” — 35/1
“Shrinking” — 56/1
“Mo” — 100/1
“Dead to Me” — 100/1
“The Righteous Gemstones” — 100/1
See more Comedy Series contenders …
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) — 18/5
Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”) — 11/2
Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”) — 13/2
Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 17/2
Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 9/1
Elle Fanning (“The Great”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Cecily Strong (“Schmigadoon”) — 48/1
Linda Cardellini (“Dead to Me”) — 48/1
Tatiana Maslany (“She-Hulk: Attorney at Law”) — 58/1
Natasia Demetriou (“What We Do in the Shadows”) — 60/1
See more Comedy Actress contenders …
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”) — 19/5
Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) — 4/1
Bill Hader (“Barry”) — 5/1
Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 6/1
Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 7/1
Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jason Segel (“Shrinking”) — 30/1
Nicholas Hoult (“The Great”) — 48/1
Mohammed Amer (“Mo”) — 100/1
Nathan Fielder (“The Rehearsal”) — 100/1
Bob Odenkirk (“Lucky Hank”) — 100/1
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (“Reservation Dogs”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Actor contenders …
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”) — 4/1
Hannah Waddingham (“Ted Lasso”) — 11/2
Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”) — 6/1
Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) — 15/2
Juno Temple (“Ted Lasso”) — 9/1
Alex Borstein (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 14/1
Sarah Goldberg (“Barry”) — 15/1
Cecily Strong (“Saturday Night Live”) — 20/1
Predicted Spoilers
Lisa Ann Walter (“Abbott Elementary”) — 40/1
Zazie Beetz (“Atlanta”) — 100/1
Gwendoline Christie (“Wednesday”) — 100/1
Michelle Yeoh (“American Born Chinese”) — 100/1
Molly Shannon (“The Other Two”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Supp. Actress contenders …
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) — 9/2
Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”) — 11/2
Henry Winkler (“Barry”) — 6/1
Nick Mohammed (“Ted Lasso”) — 8/1
Anthony Carrigan (“Barry”) — 10/1
Tony Shalhoub (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 21/2
Bowen Yang (“Saturday Night Live”) — 14/1
Brian Tyree Henry (“Atlanta”) — 22/1
Predicted Spoilers
Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) — 25/1
Chris Perfetti (“Abbott Elementary”) — 40/1
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) — 46/1
Stephen Root (“Barry”) — 87/1
Harvey Guillen (“What We Do in the Shadows”) — 100/1
Toheeb Jimoh (“Ted Lasso”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Supp. Actor contenders …
SEE‘Succession’ Season 4 trailer debuts, HBO reveals March premiere date
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Predicted Nominees
“Succession” — 4/1
“The White Lotus: Sicily” — 11/2
“Better Call Saul” — 7/1
“The Crown” — 17/2
“The Last of Us” — 9/1
“House of the Dragon” — 10/1
“Yellowjackets” — 12/1
“The Mandalorian” — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Andor” — 35/1
“Yellowstone” — 54/1
“The Old Man” — 66/1
“Poker Face” — 100/1
“The Handmaid’s Tale” — 100/1
“Bad Sisters” — 100/1
“Lord of the Rings: Rings of Power” — 100/1
See more Drama Series contenders …
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”) — 18/5
Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) — 9/2
Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) — 13/2
Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”) — 7/1
Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) — 9/1
Natasha Lyonne (“Poker Face”) — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
Sharon Horgan (“Bad Sisters”) — 16/1
Juliette Lewis (“Yellowjackets”) — 35/1
Christine Baranski (“The Good Fight”) — 52/1
Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”) — 54/1
Helen Mirren (“1923”) — 58/1
Kelly Reilly (“Yellowstone”) — 100/1
See more Drama Actress contenders …
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) — 37/10
Brian Cox (“Succession”) — 4/1
Jeremy Strong (“Succession”) — 5/1
Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) — 13/2
Pedro Pascal (“The Last of Us”) — 15/2
Paddy Considine (“House of the Dragon”) — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
Diego Luna (“Andor”) — 18/1
Harrison Ford (“1923”) — 48/1
Matthew Rhys (“Perry Mason”) — 100/1
Dominic West (“The Crown”) — 100/1
Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”) — 100/1
See more Drama Actor contenders …
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 4/1
Sarah Snook (“Succession”) — 11/2
Rhea Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”) — 13/2
Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) — 8/1
Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 9/1
Christina Ricci (“Yellowjackets”) — 19/2
Meghann Fahy (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 14/1
J. Smith-Cameron (“Succession”) — 18/1
Predicted Spoilers
Lesley Manville (“The Crown”) — 30/1
Carol Burnett (“Better Call Saul”) — 46/1
Milly Alcock (“House of the Dragon”) — 90/1
Olivia Cooke (“House of the Dragon”) — 100/1
Ann Dowd (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) — 100/1
See more Drama Supp. Actress contenders …
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”) — 9/2
Kieran Culkin (“Succession”) — 11/2
Giancarlo Esposito (“Better Call Saul”) — 7/1
F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 17/2
Matt Smith (“House of the Dragon”) — 21/2
Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”) — 13/1
John Lithgow (“The Old Man”) — 14/1
Stellan Skarsgard (“Andor”) — 18/1
Predicted Spoilers
Nicholas Braun (“Succession”) — 28/1
Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) — 28/1
Tom Hollander (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 54/1
Ken Leung (“Industry”) — 78/1
Michael Imperioli (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 100/1
Bradley Whitford (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) — 100/1
See more Drama Supp. Actor contenders …
BEST LIMITED SERIES
Predicted Nominees
“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” — 39/10
“Fleishman Is in Trouble” — 9/2
“Black Bird” — 5/1
“White House Plumbers” — 13/2
“George and Tammy” — 8/1
“Daisy Jones and the Six” — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Full Circle” — 20/1
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” — 42/1
“The Patient” — 80/1
“Extrapolations” — 100/1
“Great Expectations” — 100/1
See more Limited Series contenders …
BEST TV MOVIE
Predicted Nominees
“Fire Island” — 19/5
“Prey” — 4/1
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” — 9/2
“Hocus Pocus 2” — 15/2
“Jerry and Marge Go Large” — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Reno 911: It’s a Wonderful Heist” — 15/1
“Boston Strangler” — 25/1
“Somebody I Used to Know” — 62/1
“Disenchanted” — 95/1
“Honor Society” — 100/1
“A Small Light” — 100/1
See more TV Movie contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”) — 37/10
Emily Blunt (“The English”) — 9/2
Lizzy Caplan (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) — 13/2
Riley Keough (“Daisy Jones and the Six”) — 8/1
Vera Farmiga (“Five Days at Memorial”) — 11/1
Claire Danes (“Full Circle”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Naomi Watts (“The Watcher”) — 16/1
Kathryn Hahn (“Tiny Beautiful Things”) — 30/1
Keira Knightley (“Boston Strangler”) — 48/1
Annette Bening (“Jerry and Marge Go Large”) — 50/1
Bel Powley (“A Small Light”) — 60/1
Amber Midthunder (“Prey”) — 100/1
Alicia Vikander (“Irma Vep”) — 100/1
Zoe Saldana (“From Scratch”) — 100/1
Alison Brie (“Somebody I Used to Know”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Actress contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 37/10
Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”) — 9/2
Michael Shannon (“George and Tammy”) — 13/2
Woody Harrelson (“White House Plumbers”) — 13/2
Daniel Radcliffe (“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”) — 7/1
Jesse Eisenberg (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Ewan McGregor (“Obi-Wan Kenobi”) — 22/1
Steve Carell (“The Patient”) — 30/1
Justin Theroux (“White House Plumbers”) — 30/1
Ben Whishaw (“This Is Going To Hurt”) — 89/1
Jake Lacy (“A Friend of the Family”) — 100/1
Liev Schreiber (“A Small Light”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Actor contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) — 39/10
Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 9/2
Lena Headey (“White House Plumbers”) — 11/2
Judy Greer (“White House Plumbers”) — 8/1
Cherry Jones (“Five Days at Memorial”) — 12/1
Anna Paquin (“A Friend of the Family”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Zazie Beetz (“Full Circle”) — 18/1
Merritt Wever (“Tiny Beautiful Things”) — 40/1
Michael Learned (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 40/1
Olivia Colman (“Great Expectations”) — 50/1
Carrie Coon (“Boston Strangler”) — 62/1
Jennifer Coolidge (“The Watcher”) — 100/1
Mckenna Grace (“A Friend of the Family”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Supp. Actress contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 39/10
Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) — 9/2
Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”) — 7/1
Ray Liotta (“Black Bird”) — 17/2
Dennis Quaid (“Full Circle”) – 13/1
Jharrel Jerome (“Full Circle”) — 20/1
Predicted Spoilers
Ciaran Hinds (“The English”) — 30/1
Hayden Christensen (“Obi-Wan Kenobi”) — 40/1
Timothy Olyphant (“Full Circle”) — 42/1
Greg Kinnear (“Black Bird”) — 52/1
Murray Bartlett (“Welcome to Chippendales”) — 60/1
Bowen Yang (“Fire Island”) — 100/1
Domhnall Gleeson (“White House Plumbers”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Supp. Actor contenders …
PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12
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